Can the Israel-Hamas Truce Last? Unpacking Stakes & Challenges – The Nationalist View Briefing

Miri gives an in-depth analysis of the ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, emphasizing that Hamas remains a terror organization deeply embedded within Gaza’s civilian population, exploiting the truce to its advantage by blending in and launching attacks from civilian areas. She explains the complexities Israel faces: recovering the remaining hostages’ bodies for closure, ensuring Hamas never rules or arms itself in Gaza again, and ultimately paving the way for a different, preferably Palestinian, leadership in the Strip. Miri highlights how the landscape of political Islam and radicalization, especially with the weakening of the Shiite axis and the possible rise of hardline Sunni regimes across the region—including Syria and Turkey—poses new challenges both to Israel and the wider Middle East. Addressing recent moves by countries such as the UK and France to recognize Palestine, she stresses the problematic timing, as these recognitions risk legitimizing Hamas’ terror in the eyes of many, even though official policy distinguishes between Palestinians and Hamas. Finally, Miri argues the truce is likely to hold due to lack of alternatives, but warns it will be constantly challenged, with Hamas eager to delegitimize Israel internationally. She notes Israel is focused on rebuilding its economy and society, which have suffered greatly from years of conflict and attacks from both Gaza and the north, and that the ceasefire, while not peace, is a necessary step forward.